Billy Boy's Weekly Rundown #1
On the boys individual side, we have three of the top four harriers defeated by runners outside that group. Landry being the first victim, took a whipping at Burke Lake by the new dynamic duo of Westfield, James Scheiner and David Groff. That same day, Landry also suffered a defeat by another dark house, from Robinson, senior Sam Rhodes. Rhodes, plagued by injury much of last year, looks like he could have a blowout season. After running roughly 30 seconds slower than he did at Burke Lake last year, many questions started to fly about Christo. The coaches showed their insecurities as well in Wednesday's coaches rankings, moving him from 1st to 9th on the list. Let's wrap-up this topic...WRONG DECISION. Christo showed the heart of a champion this past weekend,bouncing back from defeat, taking first place over teammate Chris Mocko, running a time of 16:36. Coaches need to move this man back up, or they'll be making a big mistake.
As of Wednesday, Albemarle's Hari Mix stood second in the Cream of the Crop boys, having not even run. This past weekend at Fork Union, the Westfield Duo struck again, upsetting Mix. Both Scheiner and Groff beat Mix, as well as Maggie Walker senior Daniel Howard. What's with top harriers and getting beat by 3 people? Why not two, one, or none? Kind of an interesting pattern, especially after ANOTHER top ranked harrier, Woodside's Derrick Robbins, lost to 3 other Virginian's as well this past weekend at Great Meadows Invitational...
A top 10 ranked Billy Berlin of Midlothian, and non ranked junior breakthrough runner, Dawit Legesse from Robert E. Lee, both took it to Robbins. The third runner to beat him however didn't follow the pattern of being lower ranked or not ranked at all. It was #1 ranked Steven Walters from Green Run. He DOMINATED all other Virginians, being the only runner to truck a sub 17 through the calf deep mud and knee deep water. So let's wrap up this topic...are the favorites to win the individual state title in trouble?
The answer is yes. With the exception of Walters, the other three have shown vulnerability. The great and ambitious runners of Virginia should now be filled with confidence, and the thrown is now wide open. Could one of the Westfield boys do it or how about Berlin from Midlothian, the next closest runner to Walters this weekend. However; Walters, Robbins, Landry, and Mix were placed at the top for a reason and that is this: they will always be a threat on the only day that matters, November 8th. In conclusion... never count anyone out...
On the AA side, Justin Hatch of Christiansburg looks like he's got everything under control. His teammate John Horst has been his top competition thus far, but Matt Bierlien of Fauquier is looking descent as well. The AA boys are definitely lacking some of the superstars they've had the past years such as Lockhart, Crews, Ruiz, etc etc...
A similar pattern has occurred in the boys team race. While some teams have stood strong and not suffered actual defeat, they have shown weakness in close wins. Once again in the spotlight this week is Westfield. Westfield looks to be the real deal, if you didn't buy it after Burke Lake you coaches better clue in after FUMA this weekend. Westfield came out of the shadows at Burke Lake, edging #1 Cream of the Crop boys team Thomas Jefferson S&T 70-78. Then, this weekend at Fork Union, the Westfield boys actually took down the 2001 State Champs Maggie Walker and #2 ranked in the Cream of the Crop. Taking them down...that could be an understatement if you wish, Westfield beat Maggie Walker 83-56, you can pick a different adjective for beat if you would like.
You really have to look at what the problems are and go from there, Maggie Walker IS NOT in that much trouble. In fact, by the time November 8th rolls around, they will still be in contention for the crown. Howard looks to be a strong leader with Stegmaier and Patel as a strong 2, 3 punch. Junior Brandon Herzog looks to be running descent, and we all have seen how he can perform spectacularly almost out of no where. So...that would be 1...2...3...4 guys, too bad you have to score a 5th. The problem right now with Maggie Walker's team is there 5th man, in the last two weeks he's been right around 17:40-50 on two very fast courses compared to states, he'll need to close the gap, then Maggie Walker will be set.
Back to TJ, the top ranked team was almost beaten by Westfield in the season opener, is this trouble? Usually TJ is strong at the beginning of the year, not showing any signs of weakness. All that talk over the summer of them being unstoppable, untouchable, and people saying it would take a miracle to beat them, is now starting to fizzle away. They dominated the CNU meet this weekend, however the team competition just wasn't there. It did look like they showed improvement though, with Landry and Mocko as a strong 1, 2 punch over Thomas Dale's Jon Turnbull. Their 3, 4, 5,6, 7 and 8 are all packed together as well. That's where their strength lies, they'll be having plenty of dog fights amongst the team to make the top 7, and everyone will be pushing each other. Look for TJ to come ready by November 8th, could a team finally repeat? I think so.
And finally, we saw Midlothian kick off their season this weekend at the sloppy Great Meadows Invitational. Midlothian went into the season #3 Cream of the Crop. They won by a descent margin over Lake Braddock, by 12 points, the same margin TJ beat them by at Burke Lake. So, are the teams equal? No one can tell until the head to head matchup, they'll first meet at William and Mary this season. Berlin led the Trojans with an outstanding performance that I don't think many saw coming. What does this kid eat for breakfast? He ended up the next VA finisher behind Walters, running roughly 17:15. Midlo's #2 man, ranked 5th in AAA boys was Ryan Witt. Witt finished 12th and have many wondering who is Midlo's #1 now. Is it Berlin or is it Witt? Based on this weekend it looks like Berlin, but these two may end up shadowing each other all season. Apart from the Berlin-Witt duo was Midlo's 3, 4, and 5...and by apart I mean waaaaaaay apart. Juniors Ryan Call and Kurt Witt and senior Aaron Duignam were a minute and over behind Ryan Witt. All three of these guys better close the gap, if Midlothian wants to be in the run for it.
Ahh wait, they almost slipped my mind, like they manage to do every year. Don't forget Oakton. These guys have been hiding out in Maryland for the past two weekends, winning two invitationals thus far, WITHOUT the help of their top runner, Kruz. They will return to Maryland again this weekend for the Bull Run Invitational. Joining them will be the likes of Midlothian, Massapanax, Colonial Forge, and a few other Virginia schools. Should be interesting to see how they compare...
The team conclusion is pretty much the same as the individual for right now, it's wide open. Anyone with a shot can do it on November 8th, it's going to be the team with the most hunger and discipline, and don't forget great coaching. It should be interesting to see what TJ, Westfield, Midlothian, and Maggie Walker do to fix their weaknesses over the next month.
Moving on to the ladies...
The biggest name in AAA so far, Amanda Patterson of Midlothian. On a day where it would seem like a fast time could not be run, she proved it wrong. Running 19:23 at Great Meadows this past weekend, she put over 20 seconds on senior Beth Fahey of Forest Park in the last mile, dominating the entire field. Patterson was ranked #1 in girls AAA before this weekend, and she secured that spot nicely, perhaps the coaches need to re-evaluate and move her up on the Cream of the Crop list as well.
Tasmin Fanning looked strong as well at FUMA. She edged St. Catherine's Katie Doswell at the line with a time of 18:33 to Doswell's 18:35. Tasmin's sis came rolling in 12 seconds later with a time of 18:43. These three girls made a strong statement this weekend.
James River's Rebecca Ward made a splash two weekends ago winning the Newport News invitational with a time of 19:25 over Maggie Walker's Ritchie Vaughan. She has placed herself as the lady Rapid's #1 runner, over Lindsay Traudt, last year's breakthrough girl, and 5:10 miler. I'll be tracking these girls very carefully over the next few weeks...
Christiansburg's Kristen Hagen has shined so far with great performances. She crushed the competition in her season opener at the Highlander Invitational with a PR time of 18:40. She followed up that performance at the Blue Demon Invitational running 19:00. These two courses are not known for super fast times, so they are very respectable indeed.
Melissa Dewey of Hayfield dominated Burke Lake in week 1, winning with a time of 18:06. However, at Great Meadows this past week Dewey finished 4th with a time of 20:07, still respectable for the conditions but never really challenged the top three finishers in that race, Patterson, Fahey, and sophomore sensation motor mouth Stefanie Slekis from Forest Park.
We've seen little of distance specialist Emily Harrison of Warren County this year, but in her one race she's made a strong statement for any AA runners...that is with the exception of Bowman. At a relatively smaller meet at Eastern Mennonite, Harrison ran a blazing time of 19:10. Put her in with some more competition and some bigger meets, and you've got someone you really have to watch.
So that leaves us with three more runners I'd like to talk about, Anna Chase of Martinsville, Jennifer Beury of Hidden Valley, and of course the top dog from Faquier, Sarah Bowman. Where the heck is Chase so far? If anyone has seen her please tell her Cross Country season has started, and we'd like to see her perform, haha only kidding...well actually not, all kidding aside, I'm sure everyone is interested to see what she can do.
OK are these two messing with our heads or what? We've yet to see stuff from Beury as well. She boosts strong track times with a 5:03 mile and a 10:40 two mile. But none of that means anything until we see her this year running CC.
Last and certainly not least, Sarah Bowman. So far, she has run two semi slow courses but dominated the competition at both. Not much to say here, even though there's A LOT of talent in AA girls, I'm calling Bowman an untouchable this year, she'll win everything she enters.
Onto the girls teams. Not as much to say on this topic, mainly because I agree with most of the rankings...
Western Albemarle led by the Fanning sisters are the top dogs overall, as Herdon looks to be the strongest in AAA. They showed at Great Meadows their ability to pack their runners, making them a huge threat to win the crown. Maggie Walker however is looking strong as well. They showed no fear going into the first meet of the season, putting a whooping on defending state champs James River. They went to Fork Union this past weekend though, and get whooped themselves by Western Albemarle, which is not something to be too ashamed of however. Looking at their times and places though, they definitely don't show total domination, the Central Region crown will still be up for grabs between James River, Maggie Walker, and...
Midlothian. The Midlo girls team have arrived on the scene from almost no where. Last year they failed to even make the AAA State Championship. However, led by Patterson this weekend at Great Meadows, they were much closer to Herdon than many would have thought, beating Lake Braddock and Forest Park along the way. Two time 800 Central Region champion, Erin Prillaman, seems to have made a nice transition to Cross Country this fall, placing 9th in the meet. With these two up front, and a decent 3,4,5 pack following they should be in contention this year as well.
Finally Wrap-Up & Billy Bob's Rankings: "Billy Bob's Cream of the Crop Boys" 1)Walters 2)Berlin 3)Landry 4)Scheiner 5)Robbins 6)Groff 7)Hatch 8)Howard 9)Chapa 10)Legesse 11)Mix 12)Hutton 13)Horst 14)Printz 15)Young "Billy Bob's Cream of the Crop Teams" 1)Thomas Jefferson S&T 2)Westfield 3)Oakton 4)Midlothian 5)Lake Braddock 6)Maggie Walker 7)James Wood 8)Freeman 9)Tabb 10)Fort Defiance "Billy Bob's Cream of the Crop Girls" 1)Bowman 2)Beury 3)Patterson 4)Harrison 5)Hagen 6)Chase 7)T.Fanning 8)Doswell 9)Fahey 10)J.Fanning 11)Ward 12)Dewey 13)Slekis 14)Sherbak 15)Endres "Billy Bob's Cream of the Crop Girls Teams" 1)Western Albemarle 2)Herndon 3)Midlothian 4)Maggie Walker 5)Forest Park 6)Lake Braddock 7)Hayfield 8)James River 9)Freeman 10)John Handley