AAA Boys
The team title appears to be a two battle between Northern Region champs Thomas Jefferson and Central Region champs J.R. Tucker.
Tucker has received much of the billing this season as they have been nationally ranked as high as 13th and ranked number one in the NTN Southeast Regional rankings. However, they suffered their first defeat at the Colonial District Meet at the hands of the Douglas Freeman boys as they raced without number three runner Thuom Mathaing. Mathaing was able to race the following weekend at the Central Region Meet as the Tigers bounced back to hold off Freeman and win their second consecutive regional title. Tucker is expected to get a one point score card from top runner Michael Chapa, who is the individual race favorite for the state crown. Mason McElroy is a probable All-State finisher as he has two sub 16 5K clockings under his belt this season with a 15:50 at Great Meadows and a 15:52 at the Central Region Meet. Mathaing and teammate Ben Rickey will be counted on to come through with solid runs and sub 17 runs for sure at Great Meadows. Out of their top five runners, Mathaing and Rickey appear to the most critical in the team outcome. Mathaing\'s health still has to be a big question mark as he had to use his teammates as crutches while in visible pain after the regional race. Meanwhile, Rickey has had back to back shaky races after running strong earlier in the season. At their personal bests of 16:07 and 16:27 respectively, Tucker appears to be unstoppable, but they have not performed to those levels as of late. Fifth runner Michael Peterson could also make or break Tucker\'s state titles hopes. A poor race from him and Tucker\'s chances could be doomed, but a strong race could seal the state title with their strong top four. In a promising sign for this weekend\'s race, Peterson ran a personal best time of 17:25 at the Central Region Meet. A strong win at the state meet could help lock up an invitation for the Tucker boys to the Nike Team Nationals.
Thomas Jefferson enters the meet as the only team yet to be defeated by a team from the state of Virginia as they are coming off their third consecutive Northern Region title. While not possessing the star runners like Tucker has in the likes of Chapa and McElroy, Thomas Jefferson does have a tighter pack and superior depth. At the Northern Region Meet, a meager 20 seconds separated their top five as they averaged 15:54 as a team on the mud slickened Burke Lake Park 2.98 mile course. Once disadvantage that Thomas Jefferson finds is they have not raced a full 5K race in a month as they raced at Burke Lake twice and on Van Courtland Park\'s 2.5 mile course in recent weeks. However, they did look impressive in their lone 5K race of the season with six runners under 17 minutes. There is no set lineup for this team as the finishing order seems to change every week. Paul Norland was the team\'s top finisher at the regional meet, but Kyle Smith and Chris Katilie have also ran in the top spot before as well this season. Katilie has the fastest 5K personal best on the team of 16 minutes flat. Thomas Jefferson has the ability to pack seven runners on any team\'s top five. If they are able to do the same on Saturday to Tucker and the rest of the teams in the AAA race, it would be hard to imagine that Thomas Jefferson would walk away without their second state title in three years.
While Thomas Jefferson is a team that will be trying to beat Tucker for the first time this season, Douglas Freeman already has and came close to doing it again this past weekend at the Central Region Meet. At the Colonial District Meet, the Rebels took advantage of the absent Mathaing and defeated the Tigers by a 12 point margin. With Mathaing back in the lineup, Douglas Freeman was still able to keep the race close with Tucker finishing only eight points behind. Freeman\'s top runners Richard Andrews and Cabell Rosanelli are coming off personal best performances at the regional meet with times of 16:00 and 16:17 respectively. It will be key for their remaining top five runners to stay around 17 minutes on the Great Meadows course to challenge the likes of Tucker and Thomas Jefferson. Stephen Cox (16:59), Andrew Pike (17:07), David Newsome (17:12), and Scott Donelson (17:20) all posted solid times on a Pole Green Park 5K course that is comparable to the state course.
Northern Region runner-up to Thomas Jefferson, Oakton is a team that could surprise if Tucker or Thomas Jefferson slips up at the state meet. Oakton has plenty of experience racing Thomas Jefferson as the two teams have faced off four times this season, while Oakton met Tucker at Great American. Oakton was beaten by both teams in all five encounters, but has consistently performed at a high level all season long. The Cougars finished eight points behind Thomas Jefferson at their district meet and 21 points behind them at their regional meet. The Cougars are led by All-Region performer James Phillips, who is capable of earning All-State honors individually with a season best 5K of 16:11. Teammates Jason Vick (2.98mi - 15:53, 5K - 16:59), Kevin Meehan (2.98mi - 15:49, 5K - 16:30), Patrick Epley (2.98 - 16:01), and Tommy Mason (2.98mi - 16:29) round out a solid top five with top runner Phillips. A breakthrough race from Mason especially could dramatically close the gap that exists between them and Thomas Jefferson.
West Springfield is a team that is notorious for always performing well at the state meet and catching teams off guard. Coach Kelbaugh has another one of those squads this year that could nip a lot of teams from behind. The Spartans are led by super sophomore Michael Spooner who has posted a season best of 16:03 for the 5K this fall. Spooner is currently ranked 10th in AA and is expected to earn All-State honors individually. A time span of 20 seconds separated their remaining top four at the regional meet behind Spooner with Kris Benton (23rd, 16:08), Samuel Teka (29th, 16:27), Alex Martis (30th, 16:28), and Leo Walker (39th, 16:34). If this pack stays tightly packed and is able to move up, the Spartans could find themselves once again on the state meet podium.
It has been a while since a Northwest Region boys\' team has finished in the the top three at the state meet. The Albemarle boys nearly cracked in the top three in 2001 with a fourth place finish. The 2004 Colonial Forge boys\' team has a lineup that could possibly end the drought for the region. The Northwest Region champs had an impressive showing in their regional championship win. The Eagles were led by Daniel Leyh who posted a personal best time of 16:37 to finish fifth overall. However, the strength for Colonial Forge lies in their depth. At the regional meet, a time spread of 12 seconds separated their number two through five runners with Arno Dieckmann (15th, 17:07), Joseph Mihelic (16th, 17:07), Nicholas Oltman (19th, 17:16), and Tony Nowotarski (21st, 17:19). The Eagles are counting on for a big run from Nowotarski as well who was their projected number one runner this season, but has had a shaky fall.
Individually in the boys\' race, if Michael Chapa races like he did at the Central Region Meet at Pole Green Park, the question will not be whether or not he\'ll win, but by how much. Chapa broke his own course record by 16 seconds with his 15:12 clocking. His time is especially impressive when looking ahead to his state meet race this weekend at Great Meadows due to the fact that Pole Green is considered similar in difficulty to Great Meadows. Ironically, last year as a junior, Chapa ran 15:56 at both Pole Green (Regions) and Great Meadows (States). While Foot Locker is still a few weeks away, Chapa is running just as dominant as Virginia\'s most recent Foot Locker qualifiers Bobby Lockhart, Fleet Hower, Matt Keally, and Kippy Keino did in their senior years.
However, Chapa does have some worthy contenders if does not race up to his top level. From the Eastern Region, there are two very talented individuals that could give Chapa a scare in Western Branch\'s Adam Hutton and Woodside\'s Derrick Robbins. These two runners waged war with one another at the Eastern Region Meet last Friday as they went stride for stride with another all 3.1 miles. However, in the final 100 meters, Hutton had a burst of speed to run down Robbins for a photo finish win as both runners were clocked at 15:38. It was especially a breakthrough run for Hutton as he dropped 14 seconds off his previous best time. Robbins has the second fastest 5K in the state behind Chapa at 15:28.
From the Northwest Region, there is regional champion Patterson Wilhelm. Wilhelm was one of the pre-season favorites to win the state as he posted spectacular times as a sophomore (4:14 1600m, 9:17 3200m, and 15:52 5K), but has yet to bust the big one this season without a sub 16 minute performance (16:02 5K season best). However, he could be holding back for a great state race and must be regarded as a contender considering his credentials.
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Out of the six strongest contenders for the individual state title, there are zero state titles between the six of them in cross country, indoor track, and outdoor track. All six will be equally as hungry to take home that first crown.
AAA Girls
If you think the AAA boys\' races will be fun to watch, you have not seen anything yet once the AAA girls toe the line with some very competitive team and individual races.
The Oakton girls come into the state meet as the odds-on favorite to win the state title as they are currently ranked #1 in the state and as well hold the top ranking among NTN Southeast teams. Not only is a state title on the line for the Oakton girls, but if they win and win impressively, they should be guaranteed a spot at the first ever Nike Team Nationals. Based off the in-state competition they have faced this season that task should be easy work. In their latest win at the Northern Region Meet, the Lady Cougars won by a convincing 31 point margin over then #2 state ranked Lake Braddock. Oakton was able to put four runners across the line before Lake Braddock\'s second runner crossed the line as Kayley Byrne (2nd, 18:14), Danielle Light (3rd, 18:23), Allegra Smith (7th, 18:29), and Meredith Tighe (8th, 18:29) all posted impressive times on a Burke Lake 2.98 mile course that is roughly over a minute faster than the state course in most years. The team posted an average of 18:33 and that goes without mentioning that Oakton had an off day from top five regular Carly Hudson (32nd, 19:31) who ran seventh for the team at regions. However, Katie Esselburn (24th, 19:11) and Hallie Eilerts (28th, 19:19) were right there to provide instant support when one of their top five mainstays had a subpar day. The depth the Oakton girls possess seems almost impossible to overcome.
Almost is the key word in that last sentence as a race still must be run to determine this year\'s AAA girls\' team champion and there are a few talented teams that want that honor bestowed to them just as much as Oakton does. One team that appears to have the best shot at knocking off Oakton is Central Region champions James River. The Oakton girls have yet to face James River and that leaves a lot of uncertainty on how the two teams will match up against one another. The Lady Rapids are led by a top three that can surely match up with the best three that Oakton has to offer in Christy Ward, Emily Schroeder, and Kristin Wolfe. Ward has truly had a breakthrough fall of cross country. Ward recently is coming off a huge race at the Central Region Meet where she won the individual regional crown in a time of 18:59. Ward (18:48 season best 5K) is considered as a darkhorse in the individual race as she is ranked fourth in AAA coming into the meet. Schroeder, ranked seventh in AAA, is a 400 meter sprinter converted cross country runner. She has had no problems adjusting to the longer distance as she was regional runner-up to Ward with a personal best time of 19:09. Wolfe, a freshmen, has become of the best new faces on the state scene this season. Wolfe, ranked 15th in AAA, completed a 1-2-3 sweep of the Central Region Meet finishing third in a personal best time of 19:20. All three runners have the capability to earn All-State honors. Any team that has three runners earn All-State honors will have themselves in contention for the state championship. The \"X\" factor for the James River girl could be Christy\'s twin sister, Rebecca. Rebecca Ward was James River\'s top runner last year, but has been battling mono this season has been working her way back into shape. Rebecca Ward has a personal best time of 19:00 from her junior year and appears to be regaining her strength on a weekly basis. Her first race back from sickness was at the Dominion District Meet where she posted a time of 20:48. She came back the following week to drop her time by 45 seconds with a 20:03 clocking at the Central Region Meet. If another big one week drop occours at the state meet for Ward, Oakton might have to sweat out a state title.
Lake Braddock had been considered the team as the biggest challenger to Oakton, but have been beaten fairly convincingly in their two encouters with the Lady Cougars. In their latest encounter at the Northern Region Meet, they finished 31 points behind Oakton. It will take a poor day from Oakton and great day for Lake Braddock to make up that difference in a one week span. However, the Lady Bruins are a very formidable squad and anything less than a top three finish would be a disappointment for this team that has ran strong all season. The Lake Braddock girls are led by 11th ranked Kelsey Snowden, who earned All-Region honors (4th, 18:25) along with teammate Erin Klein (11th, 18:38). Michelle Presley (2.98mi - 18:28, 19:30 5K), Kelly Sherrard (2.98mi - 19:08, 20:33 5K), and Becca Hoogland (2.98mi - 19:02, 5K - 19:59 5K) round out the Lady Bruins\' scoring five as they all have solid season best times posted this fall.
After Oakton, James River, and Oakton, there are a few squads that could jump into that top three mix if one team from that trio has a breakdown at the state meet.
The Westfield girls, ranked fourth in AAA, finished 21 points behind Lake Braddock in third place at the Northern Region Meet. The Lady Bulldogs are led by returning All-State sophomore Catherine Lynn (2.98mi - 18:02). Alexis Deegan (19:05 5K) forms a solid duo with Lynn, but Westfield will need better support from their next three runners in order to knock off the team\'s ahead of them.
Maggie Walker, Central Region runners-up to James River, runs into the same problems as Westfield with a need for better support for their front runners. Their top three is very solid in Samantha DeAlto (19:27 5K), Ritchie Vaughan (19:31 5K), and Emily Wauford (19:34 5K). Vaughan especially could come through big for Coach Holdren at the state meet as she has been bouncing back from early season injuries. Vaughan has a personal best of 18:48 for 5K.
Douglas Freeman put five runners under 21 minutes at the Central Region Meet to finish third, but will need that pack to move up to challenge for a top three position. The Central Region Meet was not the greatest meet for the Lady Rebels as no runner in their top seven ran a personal best time. If they all did run their personal best times at the state meet, they could really pull something off with a team that includes Christi Harsha (19:33 5K), Laura Wallace (19:48 5K), Meredith Cox (19:47 5K), Sonja Lokensgard (19:53 5K), and Megan Machich (20:34 5K).
Probably the most anticipated matchup out of all the races that will be hosted at the VHSL State Cross Country Meet is the heavyweight battle for the AAA girls\' individual state title between Hayfield senior Melissa Dewey and Western Branch freshmen Aurora Scott. These two runners are not just state champion caliber athletes, but two runners who seem destine to be making trips to Foot Locker Nationals this fall.
Dewey has been posting some times this fall that would easily put her on the top seven of a lot of high school boys\' teams in the state. Her most impressive performance had to be at the Concorde District Meet where she ran the third fastest time in Burke Lake History with a 16:42 clocking on the 2.98 clocking. In that historic run, she hit the mile marker in 5:32 and the two mile mark in 11:08. She has gone undefeated all season and typically wins by over a minute margin. She has the fastest 5K in the state by 26 seconds with her 17:37 clocking in her Glory Days Grill Invitational win.
The runner with the time 26 seconds behind her happens to be freshmen phenom Aurora Scott of Western Branch at 18:03. Scott will be Dewey\'s first big challenge this season and you can expect that the youngster will not back down. In her 18:03 Eastern Region victory, Scott went through the mile mark in 5:25 and two miles in 11:35 en route to her course record breaking performance. It will be interesting to see if these two talented runners will make it a strategic race or blow it out from the start. No matter how the race plays out, it will be an exciting one to watch.
In the event that these two stars run themselves into the ground early, there are two other contenders in Central Region champion Ward and Northwest Region champion Stefanie Slekis of Forest Park. Ward won her regional title untested and should go well under 19 again at Great Meadows, while Slekis has a season best of 18:11 for the 5K.
Unfortunately, this will be the first state meet I will be missing since I started running my freshmen year of high school. I will be making a 9 hour drive down to Atlanta, Georgia tommorrow morning to cheer on my Christopher Newport University men\'s cross country team onto (hopefully) a NCAA Regional Championship and Nationals berth. I wish I could be at both places, but my loyalty to my team takes precedence. I wish all competitors the best of luck and even if you fall short in your goals this Saturday as long as you gave it your all you cannot hang your heads in shame. In my absence, Mr. Lee Dick will be on hand to take meet photos and Mr. Doug McDaniel will be present for meet coverage. Happy running!