Boys' Individual Preview & Prediction
Entering the final month of XC in VA it is looking like this race is going to come down to four guys all fighting for that first state title. These four guys who we think are right now co-favorites in our book are Brent Bailey, Edward Cerne, Grant Northcutt, and Ahmed Hassan.
Now looking on paper it seems like it is a two dog race but when you dig deep into head-to-head matchups and past performances you see that each of these guys brings something different to the table and will attack the race differently.
We'll start with the fastest on paper and that is Edward Cerne of Lake Braddock Secondary. Ed is having nothing short of a huge breakout junior year and cannot be counted out. Normally though you really wouldn't pick someone who finished 39th the year before but when they have run 15:13 already this season and run for the storied program at Lake Braddock you can't ignore them.
Ed's likely strategy will be to hang around that lead group and let them do most of the work. Talent wise we aren't sure if Ed has the most raw talent amongst these runners but as of late it looks like he has been racing the best and that will take him a long way at the state meet. After all Lake Braddock has won at least one XC State title every year since 2013.
The next up based on time is Brent Bailey who was 16th last year at states. Brent is also having a break thru year but racing a little bit more to really help show what he is made of. He is our current favorite for the title after his solid victory and speedy time at Octoberfest. His style of racing will be to take the lead and push the pace. At states he will have some guys by his side and we all remember his closing speed in track. That combination of speed and XC talent is why he is our favorite. If he re-enters the main field within 50 feet of the leaders then he will win the state title.
The most tenured guy of this group is someone we definitely can't count out either. Grant Northcutt was the runner-up his sophomore year and just now is getting back into his pre-injury shape. If he continues to stay in this good of shape then it really could be a foot race down that final stretch. Expect Grant to not be afraid of any pace and to push it himself at times.
Grant's strength is his fitness. If the pace slows just after a mile expect him to gap the field by a few seconds before the bridge and keep his foot on the pedal the entire rest of the race. He wins this race if anyone lets him go before the bridge.
Finally the dark horse for the 6A state title is Oakton's Ahmed Hassan. He has barely raced this year and is slowly getting his back and legs healthy for the season. Despite those injuries he has still managed to run in the 15:40s this season and look like a champion. Amongst all of these guys he is the only one to win any individual state title, indoor 3200, and knows how to seal the deal.
Hassan may be working his way back and normally this would be an issue this late in the season but thanks to the new regional alignment it looks like he will have four full weeks off between Albemarle and regionals allowing for some much needed training time.
In summation, there are four guys we really think can win this race in November. Brent Bailey being our favorite needs to be within range once they enter the fields, Cerne needs to pull away just after the second mile, Northcutt needs to pull away after the first mile, and Hassan needs to pull away after the second mile mark before the final downhill. If any one of these guys can achieve their goal we predict they will be a state champion on November 10th.
On the bubble: Chase Osborne (Western Branch)