States are upon us and that means some of the best races and team title chases will unfold for all of us to watch this weekend. Though there are many, we've narrowed down our list to the biggest 10 storylines we will be watching this weekend.
WATCH LIVE: Class 1/2/3 & Class 4/5/6
1. The Class 4 Boys Race
If there is one race that took us the longest to decide our predictions for it was this race. Not only is it close but it is fast as well. On paper you have defending champion Michael Tafe (Loudoun County) who has run 14:59 on the season and 15:08 at VAXC. Sophomores Jonathan Grimm (Jamestown) and Rivers Matthews (Blacksburg) are right there having gone 15:11 and 15:13 in the same race. Finally you add in Samson Palmer (Charlottesville) who blazed a 15:16 at Albemarle early last month.
When writing previews you have to cover your tail and always add in some line about how anyone can win this race, that would be an understatement here. This race is totally up for grabs but when pressed to make a predictions we went with Palmer whose performance at Albemarle stands out and is closest to the state meet. The reason we had Tafe as second is his awesome performance at VAXC where he continually moved up late in the race showing us he knows how to mount a comeback.
2. The Class 4 Girls Team Title
It always seems to be Class 4 where the dynasties land and get a foothold. This looks to be the case yet again with the chance for a new dynasty to start with Hanover or one to continue with Blacksburg. Blacksburg, the perennial powerhouse of VA XC, has made every single state meet on the girls side and has made the podium 18 of the last 19 years. They enter the weekend as the "technical" favorite but just by a point.
Hanover on the other hand is looking for their first state title and first state podium finish. Not only are they knocking on the door for that achievement but they should be for quite some time. Their regional team consisted of two juniors and five freshmen! Next year they get even stronger with two 8th graders who have already run sub 19:50 this year.
Both teams are built for a course like this so it should be one of those races where it comes down to the line. Of course they also have great competition from Grafton, Charlottesville, and Loudoun Valley who in any other year would be headlining this race.
3. How Good is Parry McCluer and Let's Not Forget Eastern Montgomery
We're not going to act like we saw this one coming all season long... we have to admit we were even doubting them early on in the season. Parry McCluer began the season ranked 5th in our preseason rankings and after a disappointing 4th place finish at Knights Crossing they failed to move up. Mathematically they were supposed to be way faster and that led us to doubt some of their individual performances or the meets' distances.
That all changes at VA XC Showcase where Parry McCluer confidently beat every single ranked team ahead of them and finished 4th in one of the biggest meets on the East Coast. That meet moved them to our #1 spot in our rankings and thus made them the first Class 1 school to ever hold the #1 spot in our power rankings.
We are excited to see how good they really are this weekend but all while we were flip flopping on how good they were we have been missing how good Eastern Montgomery is. Though they may not win this weekend, even making it close could get them into our top 10.
4. Could We See A Freshmen Win Class 5 States?
One of our favorite things is seeing freshmen win at States. It has been 30 years since a girl has 4-peated at states and it can only happen when you win your freshman year. Though we preview all the big name freshman in another article, in Class 5 specifically there are two! Those two are Sophia Lindsey (Mills Godwin) and Emma Stein (Glen Allen).
These two went 1-2 at regionals and have both broken 18 on the season. Either one could take home the title or it could be someone else but there is always that long streak looming over that you have to cheer for.
Team wise there is also a chance for Glen Allen or Briar Woods to win their first team title in school history which adds to the excitement of that race.
5. Individually, is The Class 3 Girls Race The Biggest 1-2 Punch?
There are definitely some big races this weekend but one has made us do a double take and that is the Class 3 girls race between Samantha Nitzsche (William Monroe) and Kiera Lowman (Alleghany). These two ladies have each won one state XC title and finished second to each other another time. That's right, they've gone 1-2 for the last two years.
Before that, back in 2022 it was Nitzsche winning the middle school state title while Lowman won Class 2 states before moving up. That means between the two of them they have not lost to anyone aside from themselves at states in the last four years.
Being on a faster course should also spell some fast times to take home the title.
6. What Is In Store For Us In Class 6?
If there is one team title battle that somehow is always close it is the Class 6 Girls. Three years ago, West Springfield won by 8 points over Langley. Two years ago, West Springfield won by two points over Robinson with C.G. Woodson just one point behind them. Last year, it was a tie! Robinson ultimately won based on their sixth runner.
This year it should be another close one between Robinson, West Springfield, South Lakes, Oakton, and Woodson who all legitimately have a shot at the title. With the race being so small, just one big drop or move by an athlete, the team scores can shift in a big way.
7. Does Rae Repeat or Does Taylor Win His First XC Crown?
One of the best moments of the state meet last year was Thomas Rae (Riverside) making a huge move up the last hill, saying in his post-race interview that he "Idk, I just sent it". Since then he has consistently moved up the ranks and ran faster and faster times. There is one athlete though that has run faster and that is Clover Hill's Joshua Taylor.
Taylor, who did not run last year, was the top seeded athlete all last season and just in the last few weeks has moved up to VA #3 this season and the top ranked Class 5 boy.
To win this race it is going to take boldness to make a strong move earlier than normal in our opinion. Normally in these high-stakes races you will see more conservative racing that either hurts or helps one of the runners. We saw that at Oatlands this year when sometimes you're too focused on one thing and miss the other runner coming from behind. Though it shouldn't happen quite like that this weekend, it does tell an important story about how to win when both boys are sub 15 caliber.
8. On Any Given Day... Who Will Win The Class 6 Boys Team Title?
These will be the words every single coach from Patriot, Gainesville, J.R. Tucker, Centreville, Woodbridge, West Potomac, Lake Braddock, and West Springfield say... one any given day. That's right, we could scheme up a way for any one of these eight teams to win the state title this weekend.
The favorite is Patriot with J.R. Tucker and Gainesville being right behind them but the adage proves the rule.
Any one of these teams could have two runners fall back or two runners run up. Those two runners could add or subtract a lot of points changing not only their team's score but others as well.
This one should be exciting!
9. How Good Are The Western Albemarle Boys?
The Western Albemarle boys have won 6 state team titles in the last decade but have missed the podium the last three. This year's squad looks to be good enough to not only make the podium but also take home the trophy.
The interesting thing about them though is their coaches focus on November success rather than fast times early. What this means is they are usually one of the hardest teams in the state to gauge properly. They are currently ranked #4 in our power rankings but could be much better. We will certainly see this weekend.
10. What's The Storyline We Missed? Who Will Repeat?
Last but not least, we want to know what are missing. States always leads to big upsets or coronations or anything in between. We are excited for the things we are yet to see and who will repeat as state champions both as an individual and as a team.