Disclaimer: Do not hate me or hold any personal grudges against me for these predictions. They are just for fun and if the predictions are able to motivate you to disprove them then thats great!
Boys 55
Dooms should dip under 6.50 lacing up with spikes. Regional champs Lewis and Hayes should not be far behind.
1. Allen Dooms (Charlottesville) 6.48
2. Jeremy Lewis (Amherst) 6.50
3. Ashante Hayes (Brunswick) 6.52
Boys 300
It would be great to see a race between the Louisa County freshmen Fleming and the Region I guys in the same section, but he is going to have to do it the hard way out of a slower section. There should be at least two just under 36 seconds in this race.
1. De'onte Jones (Courtland) 35.97
2. Kurt Fleming (Louisa) 35.99
3. Roderick Spruel (Chancellor) 36.05
Boys 500
Winkler's 1:08 Region II win cramped in the Estes Center was impressive, while top seed Gonsalves had better conditions on an outdoor track for his 1:07 top time. These two should go to war for the state championship in what could be a preview for the AA outdoor state title between these two AA middle distance studs.
1. Matt Winkler (Fluvanna) 1:06.80
2. Dean Gonsalves (Grafton) 1:06.95
3. Brian Hencke (Blacksburg) 1:07.10
Boys 1000
Griff Graves will not be biggest threat to knock off Dorrell, one of the state's hottest distance runners right now this winter, it will be Region II champion Logan Collins. Collins should make Dorrell run at his personal best of 2:34 if not faster to win after running a 2:36 on a 160 meter track for his regional win.
1. Peter Dorrell (Blacksburg) 2:34
2. Logan Collins (Orange) 2:34
3. Scott Crews (Rockbridge) 2:35
Boys 1600
The big question in this race is who will be able to bounce back quickly from the 4x800 meter relay as many of the entries will be leaving it all out on the track for their relay team earlier in the meet. I see Dorrell trying to run only hard enough to win and not trying to run a fast time, but a fresh Graves and others should keep the pace honest. Last year, Graves took it out hard with Zac Edwards to break the back of the field.
1. Peter Dorrell (Blacksburg) 4:21
2. Griff Graves (Abingdon) 4:24
3. Andrew Mearns (Jamestown) 4:25
Boys 3200
Graves still has to get the monkey off his back and win a AA state title in the 3200 meter run after two unsuccessful attempts last year. In race within a race between not only AA's best underclassmen distance runners, but as well as the entire state, look for two of the Jefferson District's in Satterwhite and Baker to dip under 9:40 for the first time and maybe give Graves a run if the 1600 meter run takes too much out of him as it did last year.
1. Griff Graves (Abingdon) 9:30
2. Kyle Satterwhite (Western Albemarle) 9:36
3. Thomas Baker (Louisa County) 9:36
Boys 55 Hurdles
Nixon will already have some mileage under his belt before the finals between the trials, high jump, long jump, and triple jump competitions underway, but should still withstand a tough challenge from Region II champion Jeff Carey.
1. Ethan Nixon (Brookville) 7.49
2. Jeff Carey (Orange) 7.56
3. Brett Olinger (Broadway) 7.70
Boys 4x200
Should be a very interesting race as Caroline has the fastest time at 1:32, but Riverbend won the Region I title in a race that included Caroline in 1:33.75 with Chancellor (1:33.84) and Courtland (1:33.88) hot on their heels. Harrisonburg out of Region II went under 1:34 at the fast Virginia Tech and will need a strong showing in this relay event in their state team championship run. Going to stay with Region I on this way with so many of the fastest teams coming in from the region.
1. Riverbend 1:32.8
2. Caroline 1:33.0
3. Harrisonburg 1:33.1
Boys 4x400
This is the race I see with who wants it more with Harrisonburg and Blacksburg having two teams in contention for the state team title or at least top three finishes. Harrisonburg ranks first and Blacksburg sits as the third seed in this event with only one second separating the first five seeds.
1. Harrisonburg 3:29
2. Blacksburg 3:30
3. Jefferson Forest 3:31
Boys 4x800
Calling for the upset (based on seed times at least) here and give the Western Albemarle boys the nod despite being seeded sixth. Jefferson Forest will not be easy to take down though as Matt Kadak especially is a tough runner and fast finisher. Jamestown picks up points here unprojected based off their 9th seed in the event.
1. Western Albemarle 8:09
2. Jefferson Forest 8:11
3. Jamestown 8:16
Boys High Jump
Carl Johnson is a big question mark in the high jump as he has not contested the event since December when he cleared his state best 6'8" due to injury. Snyder won last year in 6'4", but he is still at 6'4" and this year that height will not cut it. Nixon has cleared 6'6" twice and any form of consistency in this event is a positive sign for a state championship.
1. Ethan Nixon (Brookville) 6'6"
2. Jeremy Snyder (Riverbend) 6'4"
3. Kyle Thompson (Brunswick) 6'4"
Boys Pole Vault
There is no good reason to pick against Tim Beierle as the state leader and defending outdoor state champion, but his struggles in last year's state meet and a no height last week make an upset pick easier. However, it is better to have a bad meet at the regional meet than the state meet, so look for Beierle to rebound with personal best clearance to completely redeem himself. Epperson takes a little bit of the load off of Nixon for Brookville and snags a top three finish.
1. Tim Beierle (Harrisonburg) 16'0"
2. John Intolubbe-Chmil (Charlottesville) 13'6"
3. Andrew Epperson (Brookville) 13'6"
Boys Long Jump
Outdoor state champion Coleman wins his first state title indoors, while Nixon comes up big for the team to place second. After finishing third at the Region III Meet, Lewis takes third for Amherst.
1. Robert Coleman (Caroline) 22'5"
2. Ethan Nixon (Brookville) 22'3"
3. Jermey Lewis (Amherst) 22'0"
Boys Triple Jump
Lafayette has produced some state champions in the past in this event and Piggott will be the next and in convincing fashion. Region III champion Chambers pulls in second with Nixon finishing out an all-around best today in third.
1. Garrick Piggott (Lafayette) 46'10"
2. Michael Chambers (Appomattox) 45'0"
3. Ethan Nixon (Brookville) 44'0"
Boys Shot Put
No reason to go against Kuster after a crushing defeat over Pavia at the Region III Meet. Look for Pavia and Smith to shake off their recent subpar meets to make for a strong top three in AA in the throwing event.
1. Eric Kuster (Liberty) 55'0"
2. John Pavia (Jefferson Forest) 54'3"
3. Justin Smith (Turner Ashby) 53'6"
Team Predictions
Nixon will essentially win the meet for Brookville with 2 wins and then high finishes in the long jump and triple jump. Harrisonburg will get two wins from their 4x400 and Beierle in the pole vault. Jamestown and Western Albemarle will gain extra points with strong finishes in the 4x800 from their low seeds as well as have their distance crew rack up points individually. State runner-up showings from Carey in the hurdles and Collins in the 1000 will scoot Orange County into the top 5 with all teams over 30 points.
1. Brookville 40
2. Harrisonburg 36
3. Jamestown 33
4. Western Albemarle 32
5. Orange County 31