Wayland Namingha figures as the X factor in this year's D4 Boys derby.
Division 4 Boys
In this piece, as in the pieces that have preceded it, we'll follow the data closely. Using the tools of the MileSplit database, we'll take several different pictures of what the possibilities look like for the year ahead.
Since Hopi wasn't part of the picture last year, we'll need to go back to 2019 for one very instructive look at the database:
RETURNING RUNNERS FROM 2019 - SCORE 5
It may, or it may not, shock you to learn that Hopi projects as the top 2021 Division 4 Boys team based on best times of returning athletes from the 2019 season. Assuming they're all back for Hopi this year, Wayland Namingha, Milson Tessay, and Jerren Tenakhongva all bring sub-17 credentials into the 2021 season from the 2019 season! Namhinga finished eighth at state as a freshman. With a young team overall, Hopi finished second at state that year to North Phoenix Prep. I do not have official word on Hopi's intentions for competing this season, but, if they are competing, ignore this team at your own peril.
The rest of this article will dive into what results from last year tell us, but it would be on oversight of the highest order not to mention Hopi's prospects.
At state last year, everyone competed on the same course on the same day. And, that situation is the ideal when it comes to comparing times from last year and projecting what they mean for this year.
RETURNING STATE MEET RESULTS - SCORE 5
RETURNING STATE MEET RESULTS - SCORE 4
Not many teams make the score-5 cut. For those that do make the cut, it's a tight battle between Northwest Christian holds a fairly narrow lead over Chandler Preparatory, Joseph City, North Phoenix Prep, and Valley Christian. You might easily say that the results fall within the margin of error. The analysis yields no clear favorite.
When we bump the field open a little to score-4, Glendale Prep and Northland Preparatory--both of whom had three seniors at state last year--emerge in the top two positions.
In short, it's not easy to pick any clear favorites based on the results from last year's state meet.
That being the case, we turn to times for returning runners from all meets last year.
RETURNING RUNNERS FROM 2020 - SCORE 5
This analysis reshuffles the deck and puts Chandler Preparatory on top, followed by closely by Valley Christian, then at a greater distance by Glendale Prep and Pusch Ridge Christian. Significantly, Northland Prep doesn't show up until #9. They're undoubtedly a better team than that and the rankings could reflect some disadvantages (of times) inherent in racing in Flagstaff.
So far, the analyses have left us with a somewhat confused mess. We know to think about Hopi, but three analyses from last year have left us, in turn, with Northwest Christian, Glendale Prep, and Chandler Prep on top. If it's certainty you're looking for, you haven't found any here yet.
In the quest of identifying a clear favorite, we turn now to track results from this spring. Specifically, we look to see how each of these teams fared this spring at 3200 and 1600 meters.
3200 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 5
3200 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 4
Certainty? Hardly.
This time, we have Chandler Prep and Northwest Christian in a dead heat at the top. Not far back are Northland Prep, Veritas Preparatory, and Valley Christian. All five of these teams might rightfully be considered to be in the hunt.
Trimming the analysis back to score-4 (because a lot of small schools don't run as many athletes at 3200 meters), we get essentially the same story, only this time with Pusch Ridge Christian coming close enough to get a nod or two as well.
What the 3200 times do do for us, however, is identify some clear contenders for the individual title this fall. Apart from any Hopi considerations, we have Luke Poarch of Northwest Christian, Jon Barney of Veritas Prep, Dallon Walker of Round Valley, and Myles Floyd of Pusch Ridge as the top contenders. Samuel Johnston of North Phoenix Prep, who finished third at least year's state meet, is another to watch closely.
Taking one more look at the data, we move to considering 1600 times from this spring scored as cross country. While the 1600 is farther from cross country distance than 3200 meters, the 1600 typically gives us a larger field of athletes to consider.
1600 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 5
1600 TIMES SCORED AS CROSS COUNTRY - SCORE 4
At score-5, it's a very tight race between Chandler Prep, Northland Prep, and Northwest Christian. At score-4, North Phoenix Prep slips in and steals the limelight.
So, what gives here? Simply stated, we have a wide-open race for the Division 4 Boys title this fall. If anyone is poised to run away with it all, that would probably have to be Hopi, but we just don't know that much about the 2021 Bruins yet. Aside from the unknowns of Hopi, we have at least five different teams within a hair's breadth of one another.
Normally, incoming freshmen don't make that big of a difference in boys cross country, but this could be the year that an incoming freshman or two tips the scale.
We'll watch the results closely this fall and see what emerges. For now, it's very much a game of wait-and-see.