Girls' Individual Preview & Prediction
For as long as we can remember the 6A state title for the girls has been nearly a foregone conclusion. The last three years with Kate Murphy and Rachel McArthur and then before them it was Caroline Alcorta and Sophie Chase. This year though things are different and we honestly do not know who will win the title this year.
Based off of all the performances this season and last it looks like three girls and potentially five are in contention for the title this year. These ladies are Julia Ghiselli, Olivia Beckner, Sarah Daniels, Allison Fick, and Heather Holt. Pre-season #2 Rachel Northcutt, is out for the season with an injury.
Now here is where things get complicated. If you base this race off of all-time bests then you hands down give the race to Heather Holt, even if she isn't at 100%. Right now though she isn't racing which leads us to believe she is far from 100%. Now with this long break before states its our hope she will be back in shape by states but that is yet to be seen.
After that you have to look at who is racing the best this season and that is definitely Julia Ghiselli who is unbeatable right now. She is young and without a goal which means she will push the pace and not over think things, a deadly combo for someone who can run 17:43 at Great Meadow.
Then you look at seniority and experience and that is where Sarah Daniels and Allison Fick come in who both have fast times and know how to compete in any given race. Those two will want the race to be close thru two miles.
Finally though you have to look at speed and when it comes to the speed department, Olivia Beckner leads the clubhouse anywhere from 1K to 5K and is the state leader.
Now for the race itself it should be an interesting one. Pending all of these ladies are in competitive shape it should be a good one. Holt, Beckner, and Ghiselli are the most likely pace setters with Daniels and Fick more interested in a slower paced race. Once the race is off we don't expect anyone to make a big move thru the first mile or until the athletes approach the bridge.
At this point we will know a lot about the race. If Ghiselli is out front with a lead at this point you can say the race is over but if she is holding back then it could get interesting. Beckner, Fick, and Daniels will all want it to be close heading into the final 500m and Holt will want it to be spread out just after the second mile mark.
Like we said, there are a lot of moving parts here and it is very hard to predict but if we had to predict a winner right now we would pick Julia Ghiselli pending she runs the same way. If her coaches run a more conservative race it will be a different story and we'd then shift Beckner and then Holt to the top positions but regardless of how these athletes and coaches attack this race we know it is going to be exciting!
On the bubble: Seneca Willen (James Robinson)