Lovely Ladies First
The Eastern Region Cross-Country individual title seems to be grabbed long in advance by heir apparent Natalie Sherbak of Kellam (Beach). Natalie Sherbak is the top returning individual in the Eastern Region and unless someone suddenly drops 45 seconds off her time, she will grab her first Eastern Region Cross-Country individual title.
The only possible contender is frosh Emily Webb of Gloucester who ran a 19:09 on the region course during her district meet. Sherbak has run an 18:24 on the course before, and I daresay that unless Webb drops a tremendous amount of time she will be vying for runner-up.
The Kellam Knights seem to have their eyes on taking home a lot of hardware at the region meet between Sherbak, her teammates, and the team itself. Audrey Hand (19:32), Tara Connor (20:18), Jessica Smith (21:07), and Lindsay Russo (21:23) support Natalie Sherbak. The only issue with the team is the lack of any resemblance of a pack. The team has an incredible 2-5 spread of almost 2 minutes. However, the fact that the number five runner is as fast or faster than other team's fifth runner negates this issue, that is until states rolls around. However, Kellam should have no problem repeating as Eastern Region Champions and continuing Beach District Dominance at the region meet that has existed since 1994.
It has seemed like a Beach District affair before, and it shall continue through 2003. Of the four teams that are favored to go to states, three have won region titles for the past three seasons. The newcomer this year is Princess Anne. All I can say about their performance at the Beach District Meet is wow. I had no idea they had the type of runners they do since the departure of Amanda Boswell last year. Princess Anne's top 3 were All-Beach District: Ashley Hay (19:14), Katie Winsper (19:22), and Alana Winsper (20:04) but lack support from their 4-5 runners who ran 21:27 and 22:19 respectively. However, what is optimistic for the Cavaliers is the fact that it is easier to get immediate improvement out of one or two of your slower runners than it is to see immediate improvement of a whole pack. If the number 5 runner can drop say 30 seconds (not uncommon for Sportsplex to region course conversions) then PA could take runner-up honors.
Ocean Lakes took fourth place at the district meet by a mere 5 points behind Cox. The story is the same for Ocean lakes as it is for Princess Anne. The 4th (21:53) and 5th (22:30) runners need to improve. 3 All-Beach District runners' lead Ocean lakes: Kristin Lloyd (19:37), Heather Murdoch (19:56), and Katie Keally (20:03). Ocean lakes is in the same boat as PA and I personally think that both PA and OL will improve markedly on Thursday because there front runners will score very low and there 4th and 5th can run either with the 6th place runner on Kellam or better. Teams having a strong front runner or runners and decent back runners will do better in a larger field than a balanced mid race pack team.
Cox took third at their district meet despite having a horrible race. If Cox wants to make a showing at state, they can't pull what they did at their district meet. The Falcons have a strong team with many veterans, but only two were All-District: Aspen Foster (20:12) and Jennifer Harr (20:29). Their pack needs to move up 20 seconds unless the team wants to place last at state and 4th in the region. Cox's 5th runner needs to be ahead of the 4th runner on PA and OL if they want to have any hope whatsoever of beating those teams because the 1-3 runners of PA and OL are better than Cox's 2nd runner. Intense pressure will be put on Aspen Foster to lead the team with a top 5 finish.
Bethel has a chance to be the first Girl's Peninsula district team to make it to state since Bethel did it in 1999. To do this, Bethel has to have their top 5 PR by 40 seconds each. NOT likely, but hope is what keeps us runners killing ourselves at practice. They do not have an exceptional front runner, or a pack. Ok, that was the negative, now to the positive. Bethel is the only team in the entire region to return all 7 from their team last year. Bethel is led by Charisse Bullock (20:05) and has a 2-5 spread of 76 seconds. Problem with that spread is that it starts at 21:03, and that is where the 4th place runner for Kellam is.
Rankings: (My opinions email me to express your opinion of me)
Teams:
1. Kellam-Beach District Champions
2. Princess Anne-Beach District meet Runner-up
3. Ocean Lakes-Beach District Regular season Runner-up (T)
4. Cox-Beach District Regular season Runner-up (T)
Hopefuls: Far behind the top four
Bethel
Great Bridge
Individuals: District meets Times
1. Natalie Sherbak-12-Kellam (18:29)-Beach
2. Emily Webb-9-Gloucester (19:09)-Peninsula
3. Ashley Hay-12-Princess Anne (19:14)-Beach
4. Aspen Foster-11-Cox (20:12)-Beach
5. Katie Winsper-9-Princess Anne (19:22)-Beach
6. Audrey Hand-12-Kellam (19:32)-Beach
7. Yatendra Burke-12-Salem (19:36)-Beach
8. Kristin Lloyd-12-Ocean Lakes (19:37)-Beach
9. Kristy Tobin-12-Great Bridge (19:40)-Southeastern
10. Megan Lavoie-12-Warwick (19:48)-Peninsula
11. Heather Murdoch-12-Ocean Lakes (19:56)-Beach
12. Danielle Williams-12-Salem (19:59)-Beach
13. Katie Keally-11-Ocean Lakes (20:03)-Beach
14. Alana Winsper-9-Princess Anne (20:04)-Beach
15. Charisse Bullock-12-Bethel (20:05)-Southeastern
Hopefuls:
Jessica Giffon-9-Warwick- (20:06)-Peninsula
Colson-Deep Creek- (20:12)-Southeastern
The Eastern Region cross-country individual title seems to be clinched by Steven Walters of Green Run (Beach). Walters has gone undefeated this year and is currently ranked 1st in the state, as well as possessing the fastest 5k this year which he set by himself on the Virginia Beach Sportsplex. The only possible contender is Derrick Robbins of Woodside; however, Walters has defeated Robbins before in the regular season at Great Meadows. This would be Walters second consecutive year as champion, but his goal is to actually set the course and meet record on the 30 of October. Matt Keally of Ocean Lakes ran a 15:13 in 2001 in setting a Newport News Park and an Eastern Region Meet record.
The team title is less concrete than the individual title. I want to say right now that I run at Cox High School, so you'll forgive me if I seem slanted towards my school. That being said, I believe I can say that Cox is favored to win the Eastern Region team title for the first time since 1999. The Falcons posses a strong front runner in Beach District Runner-up Kyle Guglielmo (16:13) and have three other all district runners: Phillip Jasper (16:55), Robby Stoots (17:01), and Andrew Jasper (17:42). Rounding out the top 7 are Mark Stamper (17:43), Jason Grace (17:49) and James Carlson (18:00). All achieved a Lifetime PR at their district meet, and most have steadily improved throughout the season. All the runners on the team are hungry for the championship because many vividly remember the team's runner-up finishes in 2000 and 2002, as well as an ignominious 6th place finish in 2001.
However, there are several teams that pose a threat to Cox. One team is the Dukes of Gloucester (Peninsula) who started off the year with a very strong showing at the Newport News Invitational and CNU Invite the week later, but then "disappeared" from the region radar screen because they didn't race any invites. With their district meet race being posted, the Dukes have reminded people in the region that they are contenders for the title. However, they are not as strong as they appeared at the beginning of the year and they will have to tighten up their 1-2 runners and get all their runners about 30 seconds faster to beat Cox. Gloucester's top 7 include four All-District runners: David Woodson (17:17), the superb frosh Blaine O'Reilly (17:31), David Booth (17:50), and Brent Wilt (17:51). Rounding out the top 7 are Michael Sigmon (18:08), Jason Meffley (18:31) and Gary Booker (18:52).
Being runner-up in the Beach District meet may sound bad, but very often the runner-up and even third place team has a solid shot at making the state meet. Landstown and Ocean lakes appear to be those types of teams this year. Of the two, Ocean lakes came the closest to beating Cox this year when they lost 29-27 in the last regular season meet. However, a week later the Falcons showed the region the type of running they are capable of and won their district meet with a comfortable 40-point margin. Ocean lakes is led by Drew Midland (16:28) and is supported with Clancy Waldron (17:24) and a tight 3-5 pack whose spread is a mere 12 seconds (17:58-18:10). This tight pack will propel Ocean Lakes to a state berth. Oh, did I mention the entire top 7 is underclassmen? Can you say Eastern Region 2004? Good luck trying to beat this team next year. Onto Landstown, another team with lots of talented underclassmen. At the beginning of the season, I wrongly predicted Landstown challenging Cox for the region title. However, the Eagles, though not a championship contender, can make a strong bid for a state berth. The Eagles need to beat Ocean lakes like they did in the Beach District meet.
The biggest contender is Western Branch. Despite not showing much during the regular season, it became apparent at the Southeastern District meet that either the team has been holding back, or they are suddenly and inexplicably capable of dropping time. Western Branch is led by several All-District Runners: Southeastern District Champion Adam Hutton (16:03), Anderson (17:02), Michael Irving (17:09), Jones (17:56), and Brewer (17:59) and can easily attain runner-up honors. However, to win the region meet, Jones and Brewer have to close the gap and take off 15-30 seconds.
Rankings (My opinions, email me to express your opinion of me)
Teams:
1. Cox-Beach District Champions
2. Western Branch-Southeastern District Meet Champions
3. Gloucester-Peninsula District Meet Champions
4. Ocean Lakes-Beach District Regular Season Runner-up
Hopefuls:
Landstown-Beach District Meet Runner-up
Individuals: District Times included
1. Steven Walters-12-Green Run (15:25)-Beach
2. Derrick Robbins-11-Woodside (15:32)-Peninsula
3. Adam Hutton-11-Western Branch (16:03)-Southeastern
4. Kyle Guglielmo-12-Cox (16:13)-Beach
5. Drew Midland-11-Ocean Lakes (16:28)-Beach
6. Jon Bunker-10-Landstown (16:21)-Beach
7. Tona Amatu-12-Warwick (16:30)-Peninsula
8. Long Tran-12-Oscar Smith (16:42)-Southeastern
9. Jason Myers-12-Kellam(16:43)-Beach
10. Chris Ward-12-Hickory(16:50)-Southeastern
11. Oakes-12-Hickory(16:50)-Southeastern
12. Jason Guy-12-Churchland (16:41)-Eastern
13. Phillip Jasper-12-Cox (16:55)-Beach
14. Mitch Cooper-11-Kellam (16:57)-Beach
15. Marcus Raynor-12-Granby (16:54)-Eastern
Hopefuls:
Robby Stoots-10-Cox (17:01)-Beach
Mark Anderson--Western Branch (17:02)-Southeastern
Kory Moody-10-Salem (17:04)-Beach