Expect North Stafford will give its Stafford County of rival plenty of competition, with its more junior squad (look out for next year). If their sophomore Lucas Hatcher has a repeat performance from Districts (4th), coupled with their consistent juniors, Alec Meyer and Patrick Quinn, they could make it close, particularly if any one of the Colonial Forge runners does not have a good day. Both of these teams will be extremely competitive at States, and if JR Tucker's #3 is either still out or not up to par, they will put a lot of runners in between Tucker\'s #2 and #3, which benefits Thomas Jefferson.
#3 and #4 is not clear, but it will likely be a battle between Western Valley champion E. C. Glass, Cardinal champion Forest Park and Commonwealth #3 Massaponax with Cedar Run champion Osbourn Park and Commonwealth #4 Albemarle as dark horses. Massaponax nipped E.C. Glass at the Albemarle Invitational, and Glass nipped Albemarle. Forest Park looked good at districts but that was on the flat, short Leesylvania course. However, they appear to have a tighter pack than Massaponax and Albemarle.
Individually, Forest Park senior Bryce Iverson would have been the favorite had he not been nursing an IT Band injury. He ran well (5:07) pace at districts; however, it remains to be seen what effect the longer, hillier Panorama Farms will have. If he cannot perform up to par, then the two juniors from E. C. Glass and Culpeper County, Pat Wilhelm and Devin Cornwall, look to have the best shot at the Region title. Wilhelm beat Cornwall at the Albemarle Invitational, but the latter seems to be improving every week. A couple of dark horses are Massaponax senior Brandon Dick and Colonial Forge senior Tony Nowotarksi. Dick was leading Cornwall at the 2.5 mile point on the difficult Culpeper course before he tired and was beaten by Cornwall and Nowotarksi. At the Albemarle Invite, Dick went out very conservative spotting Wilhelm and Cornwall 20-25 seconds the first mile, but then he out ran them the last 2.1 miles. If he is within 10 seconds of the leaders after the first mile on Thursday, they should not take him for granted. Iverson, if he is not bothered by his nagging injury, Wilhelm, Cornwall and Dick are all capable of turning in sub 16 performances at Panorama Farms. Albemarle senior Kelly Watt and Osbourn senior Charles Swartz will also be up there to pick off any of the aforementioned should they falter.
For the girls, team competition should be another great battle between rivals Colonial Forge and Brooke Point, who have been duking it out all season. Colonial Forge took the district honors, but it would have been closer had Brooke Point sophomore Brittany Copeland not had an off day. Forest Park looks to have a lock on 3rd place, with Commonwealth #3 North Stafford looking to be in the drivers' seat for the 4th position. Dark horses are Western Valley champion E.C. Glass, Cedar Run champion Battlefield and Commonwealth #4 Massaponax who was surprisingly close (12 points) to North Stafford at the district meet.
Individually, Forest Park junior Stephanie Slekis is undoubtedly the favorite for the girls' title. The only question is how close the two phenomenal Stafford County freshmen, Colonial Forge's Kaylan Comer and North Stafford's Kelly Reinwald will be. Given Comer's district showing of 19:04 on the slow Culpeper course, it may not be much. Another runner likely to be in that mix is Franklin County sophomore Brittany Killough who also posted a 19:04 showing at districts. Other runners who will look to provide a challenge are Comer's Colonial Forge teammate, sophomore Molly Hawkins, Brooke Point's Copeland and Albemarle senior Rachel Rose.