6A State Meet Preview
In the biggest classification of them all with schools averaging over 2,200 students we will have some of the toughest championship battles of the entire weekend. Entering as on-paper favorites are the Bruins of Lake Braddock who are going for their third girls' title in a row and third boys' title in four years. Both teams are led by great athletes as well with Sarah Daniels leading the girls team and Edward Cerne leading the boys.
Individually Cerne will also be in contention for the title this Friday. He enters the meet as the state leader both at the three mile and 5K distances. His 5K best on the season is 15:12 and that makes him the favorite for the title this weekend. Historically speaking he would be Lake Braddock's third individual champion and second in 30 years.
Posing the greatest challenges to Cerne this weekend will be Oakton's Ahmed Hassan, Ocean Lakes' Brent Bailey, and Cosby's Grant Northcutt. These guys finished 39th, 5th, and 16th last year with Northcutt missing the state meet but finishing as the runner-up in 2015.
This race will be fast and tough to win. Team wise it could be just as interesting with Lake Braddock leading the way and a trio of southern teams attempting to end the Northern Region's dominance. A dominance that has seen Northern Region teams win every state team title since 2011 and every title except for 15 since 1953. That is an astounding 76% win percentage for the Northern Region teams over the history of our sport in Virginia.
More specifically their greatest challenge will come from Western Branch who is looking for their first XC team title as a school. They have a strong 1-2 punch but will definitely have to improve top to bottom to have a chance at beating Braddock. Ocean Lakes is another team to watch who finished just behind Branch at their regional meet.
For the girls team title Lake Braddock will look for a third title in a row but James Madison and West Springfield are going to be tough to defeat Friday. West Springfield being the team that defeated Braddock at the regional meet.
Regardless of who are cheering for you have to take a step back and be impressed that either Oakton or Lake Braddock has finished in the top two in 10 of the last 14 years on the girls side. That means even though Oakton is seeded 8th, you cannot count them out either.
And finally we end where we begun, with the most exciting race of the entire state meet. This race will be between two seniors and a freshman who are all looking for their first 6A state title. Olivia Beckner (South Lakes) leads the way as the state leader with her 17:30 season best. Seeded second behind her is Julia Ghiselli the super freshman from Annandale with her 17:43 season best and Great Meadow course record (non-state course). Finally entering the meet as last year's 5A state champion and with a personal best of 16:56 is Heather Holt of George C. Marshall.
Holt being the strong preseason favorite faced nagging injuries for nearly the entire season. She made her return two weeks ago at Districts and followed it up with a speedy 17:36 runner-up finish in the regional 2.98 Mile race at Burke Lake Park. Beckner being the champion in that race.
All three look to be in tip top shape heading into the state meet and should provide us with one of the most exciting races we have ever seen.
18 total girls in 6A have run faster than 19:00 this year and four girls have gone faster than 18:20. Allison Fick (Colonial Forge) and Sarah Daniels (Lake Braddock) are the other two with Beckner and Ghiselli that have broken 18:20 this season.
The 6A Championship races will be run at 1:00pm and 1:45pm Friday.