It is officially time for the big one, the VHSL XC State Championships. 1,248 individuals and 144 teams will toe the line all chasing that state title. Half of these teams will square off down in Blacksburg while the other half will run the fast hills up at Oatlands and by this time on Saturday we will have crowned new champions.
WATCH LIVE - Class 1/2/3 & Class 4/5/6
Unlike track where there are multiple distances and seasons, cross country only has one distance and one race to decide it all. Here we preview those races and give you what we are looking forward to watching.
At the top of our list for things to watch are the close team title battles. Headlining that is the Class 6 girls team title hunt.
In this single race we have VA #1, VA #2, VA #5, VA #7, VA #8, and VA #10. That includes the Region A, C, and D team champions as well.
The Class 6 girls race seems to be the most wide open but also most predictable race of the weekend. You have our state leaders James W. Robinson running against defending champions West Springfield versus W.T. Woodson. Last year their scores at states were 62-64-65 and at regionals they went 36-39-59 this month. So you know it is going to be close.
Here is where things get interesting though, Robinson has the top talent and could seriously score 2-3 before any other team has a finisher. W.T. Woodson on the other hand has a scary tight pack and could score as a group breaking up the others while West Springfield meets them in the middle with Adeline Barker and Allie Horner potentially getting on the podium.
What all this means is that one single runner could change the outcome of this race whether that be by over performing or under performing. Each runner will have to do their job for their team to win the Class 6 team title.
Individually, Colonial Forge's Kate Loescher looks to be the girl to beat individually. Despite 8 of the top 15 girls running in this division, it looks like it is Kate's to win or lose. She has run well all season and across differing terrains. She also ran arguably her best race of the season on this very course finishing 2nd to Elaina Pierce at the Oatlands Invite. The place wasn't the story though, it was the fact that she was surging the final 800m on a girl who has now run 16:54!
Our next biggest things to watch will be the Class 4 individual title races. In the girls' race you have the VA #1 runner in Elaina Pierce looking for her coronation as the Queen of VA Distance while in the boys' race you have the rare opportunity for a freshmen state champion in Jamestown's Jonathan Grimm.
Pierce's race will be fun to watch based on her style of running from the front. She is tough and makes you come and get her and so far no girl in VA has been able to. Her toughest competition will be Kate Konyar of James Wood and Ellie Agustin of Hanover but they are both seeded a minute back.
Grimm's race should be wide-open with nearly a dozen boys separated by just 10 seconds. In this race the pre-race favorites are Grimm, the Tafe brothers (Michael Tafe and Joe Tafe), his teammate Jeffrey Linton, Charlottesville's Nathaniel Orban, and any one of Blacksburg's top boys.
So to be very clear, this race is wide-open but features the very rare opportunity of a freshmen having a legitimate chance at winning an XC state title and according to our records that has happened a grand total of one time ever. The one and only freshmen boy to win the state crown was John Handley's Bobby Lockhart who would ultimately make it a perfect four for four.
In the Class 4 boys' team title hunt is another shot at history, that being Blacksburg's third title in a row and record 12th title overall. The Bruins have looked solid all season and have remained our VA #1 team all season long. The classification does have some other solid teams in Hanover, Charlottesville, Atlee, and Loudoun County who could all make their way onto the podium.
Over in the Class 4 girls' team competition it is Blacksburg leading the way on paper. They are joined by Atlee, Hanover, and Tuscarora. Blacksburg has the most to prove and the least to prove. They have the least to prove considering they hold almost every record in the book including most title (19), lowest score (23), most consecutive titles (7 - and did it twice!), and of course they have made every single one of the 43 girls' state meets. The thing they have to prove though is last year they finished 3rd... that third place finish was their worst finish since 2004! Wrap your mind around that.
The Class 4 girls' team title battle should be very close with the favorites running with a chip on their back and some very hungry teams chasing them.
Speaking of Blacksburg, there are some great race slated to happen down in Blacksburg for the Class 1/2/3 state championships now being contested at Virginia Tech instead of Salem's flat-fast course. This should change things up and potentially favor some new teams and individuals.
The Class 3 competition will likely be the one with the most headlines from Blacksburg. That is in no small part thanks to them having some of the best teams and individuals in the entire state regardless of classification.
In the Class 3 boys' competition it looks like Maggie Walker's to win while the battle for second could be between Abingdon, Broadway, Lafayette, Hidden Valley, and Kettle Run. Individually Tristan Yoder is the top guy on paper but Peyton Kenee (Spotswood) and Eric Duncan (Lord Botetourt) are getting close. Don't forget Abingdon's Gregory Poisson who has consistently been right there as well and was the closest to Yoder at Knights Crossing.
In the Class 3 girls' competition it is VA #3 Spotswood and VA #9 Maggie Walker. Spotswood is looking for their first team title in 30 years and an improvement on last year's runner-up finish to Western Albemarle who enters the weekend third on paper. Individually it should be fun as well with defending champion Kiera Lowman (Alleghany) currently ranked third behind the Dickel sisters of Spotswood and then joined by Abingdon's Josie Jackson and William Monroe's Samantha Nitzsche.
Since the creation of the six class system there have only ever been a maximum of two girls sub 18 in Class 3 in a single year and this year we have five! Not only will this race be close, it is going to be fast too.
Also taking place down in Blacksburg will be the Class 1 and Class 2 competitions. In both of these there could be some familiar faces.
In Class 1 Parry McCluer is looking to repeat as boys champions and win their fourth title in six years. They are led by last year's runner-up Kebryl Chandler who is only a sophomore but has already run 15:09! His older brother was the state champion last year.
In the Class 1 girls' competitions Mathews leads on paper but it is anyone's race considering the terrain. Unlike many of the other classifications, Class 1 schools do not travel as much meaning their teams can range from hills to flat courses making it extremely hard to predict. It should also be noted that the last three years the state meet podium has been George Wythe and Galileo alternating wins. Emma Faulkner (George Wythe) and Shelby Stanley (Eastside) are the co-favorites for the individual title.
In the Class 2 competition Floyd County leads in both competitions with Clarke County chasing in both and Wise Central chasing in the boys competition. Individually, Abigail Rhudy (Tazewell) enters as the favorite and top returner from last year on the girls side while Mason Erchull (Floyd County) is the co-favorite on the boys side joined by last year's runner-up and top-returner Davey Johnson (Luray).
That gets us through Class 1, Class 2, Class 3, Class 4, and halfway through Class 6. So we fly back up to near Dulles International for the remaining races to preview.
In the Class 6 boys competition Woodbridge are looking to defend their team title from a year ago and their star leader Hayden Goodman is looking to move up from his 5th place finish a year ago. Throughout the season they have looked great but slowly they have received more and more competition from Gainesville & Trent Daniels and Chantilly & Tristan Thurneysen.
Woodbridge entered the season as our VA #2 team (behind Class 4's Blacksburg) and have not moved since despite four updates to the rankings. Gainesville on the other hand first appeared on the rankings on September 16th at 10th place. They then moved to 8th following Oatlands and then up to 4th following VAXC.
Individually it looks to be between Daniels, Thurneysen, Elijah Post (Centreville), Emmett Engelhardt (Washington-Liberty), and Hayden Goodman who we should not forget beat nearly all of them at the Oatlands Invite when he won.
Our bet is this race will have four or five guys in a pack together past the two-mile mark.
Finally that brings us to Class 5. This classification brought us a tie-breaker last year and great individual races too so it should be exciting again this year.
In the team title hunt are the Ocean Lakes girls and Albemarle boys both looking to repeat. They are joined by Riverbend in both races who enter the weekend seeded second.
Individually, Kate Jaeger of Midlothian is the favorite on the girls' side while Clover Hill's Joshua Taylor is the favorite on the boys' side. Both individuals will need to perform at a high level to win but are true favorites for their respective races.
Princess Anne's Daniel Rockey, Maury's Mateo Canga, and Albemarle's Eli Phillips will be contenders in this race and are good enough to be favored in nearly any other classification. This is just one of those years though with Class 5 having the best runner in the state in Joshua Taylor.
It should be noted though that you need to run the race and that every single year upsets do happen.
That brings us to our last part of the our preview, our predictions and predictions of headlines this weekend.
Biggest Winners: Kebryl Chandler and Elaina Pierce
Biggest Possible Upset: Peyton Kenee
Fastest Time at Oatlands: Joshua Taylor, Elaina Pierce
Fastest Time at VT: Tristan Yoder, Kiera Lowman
Headline From States: The Class 6 Girls Race Was The Greatest Race We've Ever Seen at States
Closest Team Title Score: Class 6 Girls
Which Prediction Are We Most Confident In: Blacksburg Boys
Which Prediction Are We Least Confident In: Woodbridge Boys
That covers all of the races happening this weekend but really only scratches the surface for what we will see. You can tune-in live on Saturday and catch all the action on MileSplit!