5A State Meet Preview
Opening the state meet season will be the 5A boys and girls championship races bright and early Friday morning. Headlining these title battles are some closely seeded individual and team contests. On paper the favorites are Tuscarora for both races with individual stars Ryann Helmers (Albemarle) and Philip Lambert (Stafford) leading the way. This, out of all the classifications, will be the hardest one to predict up and down the slate of races.
Vying for a team title aside from Tuscarora on the girls side is Albemarle who just like Tuscarora has separated from the rest of the entire state. Both teams will have to perform very well and has done so, especially on the hills all season long. The athletes to watch here will be Albemarle's 3-4-5. If they are able to finish inside of Tuscarora's top four then they will have a shot but Tuscarora does enter as a strong favorite.
On the boys' side Tuscarora is also a strong favorite. Deep Run will pose as their toughest competitor but enters on average eight seconds slower than the scoring average of Tuscarora. Those eight seconds between runners will decide the team title Friday.
Individually in the girls' race it will also be another Tuscarora & Albemarle battle between Emma Wolcott (Tuscarora) and Ryann Helmers (Albemarle). Just this season they are seeded a mere six second apart with Helmers taking the helm. Wolcott though is a veteran of this course and the 2015 champion on it. Both ladies are seniors and really hungry for either that first or second state XC title.
Ellie Desmond of Broad Run, who has gone 18:03, cannot be counted out either as a very fast sophomore in this race. The final girl to watch in this race is Jodi Tolarchyk of Hickory who has gone 18:38 this season due to injury but owns a pr of 17:49.
You can expect a group of five to seven girls to separate early and thin out to just four by the bridge crossing. Here is where things will be very interesting and exciting. Both Helmers and Wolcott love the hills and will be in great position up that final hill and back onto the infield.
In the guys individual title race it looks like a battle between seven athletes. Leading the way on paper all season has been Stafford's Philip Lambert who ran 15:22 earlier this season. Beating him though at the regional meet and having run 15:25 this season is Mountain View's Henrik Anderson.
Alongside both of them will likely also be Zachary Levet of Deep Run, Ryan McCracken of Freeman, Yared Mekonnen of Edison, Ben Nibbelink of Tuscarora, and Matthias Cannon of Deep Run. All seven of these guys have ran 15:47 or faster this season and are just some of the 14 total athletes seeded under 16 minutes in 5A this year.
Lambert will definitely push the pace the best he can with others content to go along for the ride. Only Lambert has shown a desire to push the pace throughout which means you can expect a big pack of athletes at least thru the rocks. From that point on it will come down to who wants it most and who knows when to make that all important move.
The 5A Championship races will be run at 10:30am and 11:15am Friday morning.