VHSL Group 4
Saturday, just like Friday, will begin with a bang. For Saturday that means the running of the two Group 4 races. The headlines prior to the races going off for this classification will be History on The Line.
The history these races will decide involves the team competition in both races. First up will be The Blacksburg Bruins attempting to win a state record eighth girls team title in a row. They have won so many team titles that they have won team titles in three different classifications over four realignment periods. They currently sit tied with Brentsville District for most consecutive titles at seven in a row.
This year would be special though as it could allow Blacksburg to sit atop that list alone. For the first time though in nearly a decade they will actually face, who on paper looks like, a competitor that could defeat them in Loudoun Valley. This race was and still is the biggest storyline of the entire season.
We are talking about two very different teams trying to achieve the same goal. One team, Blacksburg, has won a staggering 18 state titles and won seven in a row. They've only had one of those titles be decided by a margin of less than 43 points. The other team, Loudoun Valley, has yet to win a single state team title and is a team that has been state runner-up an unbelievable four times in a row.
Saturday though all of that is out the window and history gets to be decided by fourteen girls on the Great Meadow course.
As the season has progressed Loudoun Valley has made up the deficit they had early on and at this point look to be the favorites for the race. Blacksburg though has undoubtably more aces up their sleeves. They have what could be considered as one of the greatest 1-2-3-4's in the state's history. Kaitlynn Wolfe, Ailene Edwards, Audrey Link, and 2016 State Champ Sophia Link will all be there and ready to defend their history.
Loudoun Valley though has Elise Abbe, Ricky Fetterolf, and Caroline Bolen all ready to flip the script on Blacksburg this weekend. Valley as a team is as solid as they come. They may have no state champions on their team but they certainly run like they have a team load of them.
The team title battle will come down to Blacksburg's fifth runner. They have three girls all vying for that spot and one of them must have the race of their life. If they can have just one of those girls have a breakthrough race with the other one thru four girls taking care of business then we are in for a super close battle.
Just behind both of these teams is Millbrook who is one of the ten best teams in the entire state regardless of classification. This weekend though against two of the three best teams in VA, they are fighting for that third spot and should runaway with it.
Individually this race will also come down to these two teams. On paper it is Elise Abbe (LV) and Ricky Fetterolf (LV) in front but you cannot count out Kaitlynn Wolfe (B), Ailene Edwards (B), or Audrey and Sophia Link (B) for that matter who come from a family that is known for producing XC state champions.
Our best prediction is that a group of eight girls remain in contact with each other until the final large hill where there will be a breakaway of the top four. Then the race is just too close to call. Those eight girls we think will be out in front are the six aforementioned as well as Grace Boone (Pulaski) and Rachel Crytser (Hanover).
Next the guys will try and top that performance. The only way they could top a race like that would be with a perfect race. Perfect in the sense that Loudoun Valley could score a perfect 15 again.
Last year history was made. Not only did Loudoun Valley score a perfect 15 but they actually finished first through fifth. There were no non-scorers between them and perfection. That was the first time any team in Virginia had ever scored 15 at the state meet.
With two guys gone from that team you would think they would weaken a little bit but you would be wrong. They return to Great Meadow one year later stronger and faster than ever before. They are once again favored to score a perfect score and this time could actually go first thru seventh.
Individually, Sam Affolder (Loudoun Valley) returns as the favorite after winning here last year and thus far being the only sub 15 minute guy in Virginia. He has some tough competition though with teammate Carlos Shultz and Jacob Hunter also seeded 15:15 or faster.
The one other guy to watch and arguably the most important guy to watch will be Rylan Pettit of Woodgrove. He has run 15:10 this season and could be the only guy to stop them from sweeping the race again. He is also joined by E.C. Glass' Theo Woods who just like Pettit will be competing as an individual and not as part of a team. Those two runners cannot score.
If Sam is to defend his title he will need to shake off the other runners prior to reentering the big field. If he is joined by some other guys this race could be a footrace to the line. Expect nothing short of a very fast and exciting race here.