VHSL Group 6
The largest group of schools in the state, Group 6, will take the course next. Highlighting these groups will likely be two new state champion teams. Favored to win these titles is the West Springfield girls and either Oakton, West Springfield, W.T. Woodson, or Ocean Lakes on the guys side.
First up will be the girls race. The West Springfield Spartans return to Great Meadow after a third place finish last year. They are not only seeking to move up from that finish but to also win their school's first girls team title. Needless to say, they have a very good chance as achieving that goal.
Despite injuries early in the season, the Spartans have continued to impress week after week. They are led by Chase Kappeler, Lillian Stephens, Katie Orchard, Amy Herrema, and Helen Heaton who all have run sub 19 this season.
There are currently only four schools in the entire state that have five girls under 20 minutes. No other team has more than three girls under 19 aside from West Springfield.
Colonial Forge will be their biggest competitors who themselves have quite the strong team this season. They average 19:01 as a unit which ranks as the fourth fastest average in the entire state this year.
The guys race though will be quite different. Entering the competition Oakton leads West Springfield by just a single point, 91-92. It would not be a shock to see this race actually come down to a single point or tie-breaker.
These four teams are also no stranger to the Great Meadow course as they placed 3-4-5-6 last year. Ocean Lakes took home the third place finish and enter the weekend on paper as the fourth ranked team. Interestingly enough though, out of the four teams here it is Ocean Lakes that has yet to run on a fast course. That is why even though they are seeded fourth that we are not counting them out.
This team title battle will come down to the first 20 scoring finishers. Whoever can put three in the top twenty and preferably three in the top fifteen will likely win the title. Oakton is the deepest team on paper but West Springfield and Ocean Lakes could have the strongest 1-2 punch.
The biggest common thread amongst these teams is that they all have a large gap to their fifth place runner. If that runner can have a great race then instantly their team gets moved up. The same could happen for Patriot who would need a little more help but could be considered as having an outside chance at the title.
Individually there are eight guys under the 16 minute barrier but only two in our book that are considered favorites to win. That is not to say Sean Stuck (West Springfield), Jackson Leech (W.T. Woodson), Sam Pritchard (WS), Chris Weeks (WS), Casey Evans (Clover Hill), or Aaron Johnson (James River) cannot win the race, quite the contrary. We believe Chase Osborne (Western Branch) and Tyler Lipps (Ocean Lakes) though are the two guys to watch.
Those two guys are the two guys likely to try and make a strong move the second half of this race. Following regionals it would not be a surprise to see Osborne make a very strong move down the hill prior to reentering the field. This race though could be anyone's to win.
On the girls' side there are five girls seeded between 18:05 to 18:20. These girls, Julia Ghiselli (Annandale), McKenzi Watkins (Colonial Forge), Laura Webb (Woodbridge), Lindsey Hester (James River), and Natalie Bardach (George C Marshall) are all serious contenders for this title. Chase Kappeler (West Springfield) and Nicole Re (Chantilly) cannot be counted out either with sub 18:30's on the season.
The biggest name that stands out though from this list is Julia Ghiselli who was the runner-up a year ago. She will have tough competition though to finally get that state title and we expect many of these other girls to be right there with her thru at least the first two miles.
This race will come down to strategy and execution. It will also be one of the best races of the weekend considering it will guaranteed feature a first time state champion.