VHSL Group 5
Ending the competition will be the Group 5 races. These races could be the only ones on Saturday that see both defending champs walk away with back-to-back titles. That would mean Tuscarora winning the girls and Albemarle winning the boys. Prior to the races going off, that looks like the exact finish to expect.
On the girls' side Deep Run, Atlee, Rock Ridge, and Briar Woods will all try to unseat Tusky but according to our models it is unlikely. Getting on the podium here could be one of the toughest battles of the weekend with so much depth on the second thru fifth ranked teams.
The guys' race looks to be a reverse of last year which had Deep Run favored over Albemarle. This year Albemarle leads by twenty points (in our virtual meet) over Deep Run. They have many finishers close to each other meaning this race will come down to head-to-head finishes that could swing the race.
Almost certainly there will be a different team ahead at the Mile, Two Mile, and finish. The key to this race will be the prior mentioned head-to-head finishes between Albemarle and Deep Run. Whoever wins more of those, wins the title.
Briar Woods, Glen Allen, and L.C. Bird will be fighting for a likely third place finish.
Individually these races should be even more exciting. On the girls' side Tuscarora's Ava Hassebrock and Atlee's Rachel Mudd should make for the fastest race of the weekend. Overall these athletes rank second and third in the entire state and have run 17:44 and 17:45 respectively.
Behind these two are Cabell Franklin (Atlee), Lily Snow (Deep Run), and Ava Gordon (Rock Ridge).
We expect this race to have a pack of athletes together until the downhill prior to the water crossing. At that point the race should open and speed up. After that there is no telling what could happen between Ava and Rachel aside from knowing that it will be a fast race.
Closing out the competition things might be even closer than the girls' race. In the Group 5 championship guys race there are three guys at the top of the list separated by just three seconds (15:45-48). Behind them are another seven guys 16:06 or faster. Simply put, this race is going to be anyone's to win or lose.
Based on season best performances the lead group of guys is Joshua Shackelford (Gloucester), Paul Sepulveda (Stafford), and Colby Burcham (Deep Run). These guys and outsiders Kameron Helmlinger (Atlee), Jackson Martingayle (Princess Anne), and Brendan Taylor (L.C. Bird) are the guys we think this race will come down to.
Just like the 5B regional race, this race will have a large group of guys through the mile. Expect no big moves until the final mile where someone will have to throw down the hammer for the win.
Burcham was our favorite heading into the season and still would be our favorite but the way Taylor and Martingayle ran at regionals makes us second guess that and push this race to be the most up for grabs on the weekend.
Don't expect a super fast time or super slow time here, expect one of the toughest and closest races of the weekend. The winner here will be able to and have to change gears and paces at least twice in the race.
This weekend is not only about all of these state champions to be or the teams to win state titles, it is about the fans, parents, administrators, officials, and everyone that helps make the VHSL State XC Championships possible at Great Meadow year after year.